Saturday, March 01, 2008

The Election So Far

Hello, I have been gone for a while, but now I am back for the political campaign. This election cycle has certainly been very interesting. The Democratic race has really been a good one to follow. Sen Obama has stunned Billary and is getting ready to wrap up the nomination. I believe that there are three good reasons why this has happened

1) Message- Hillary has ran her campaign as a replay of the 04 election. Could she or her staff not see the results on the '06 election. Voters on the left really want changes. If she had retracted her Iraq vote early, talked more about health care, mortages, and taxes, she would have had a better chance.

2) Personality- This aspect was probably the most important reason for Obama's upset. Hillary is just not very trustworthy or likeable. We have seen that the Clintons will do or say anything to get or retain power. Obama presents liberalism with a sunny optimism that has been missing from Democratic politics for a long time. His cool and personable demeanor, physical attractiveness and youth has propelled Obama to the front

3) Bill Clinton- The biggest mistake that the Clintons made was to believe that all Dems and liberals love Bill and are willing to start a third term for him through Hillary. People did not want Bill removed from office, but people are tired of all of the spin, parsaring of words, and phoniness of the Clintons. The tricks of using surrogates to make personal attacks on Obama backfired. All it did was remind people of their arrogance and diviseness. It made people think, do we really want to go back to this or do we want a new start since both candidates agree on all of the major issues?

Yes, I am predicting Obama will win the nomination. His momentmum is too strong for the Clinton machine to overcome. He will win Texas, lose closely in Ohio, win Vermont and Rhode Island. After this point, there will be too much pressure on Hill to stay in. The remaining 10 states are not favorable to her. I believe Pennslyvania is the only state that she would have a chance of winning. Obama would have won 27 states by then, with the likelihood of winning 35-36 states in the end. Hill wants to have a political life after 2008, so she will reluctantly step down. Plus, if Obama loses, she will be the frontrunner in 2012.


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